The Climate Chap: It ain’t half hot mum!

 

STEVE GREEN

Who would have thought that the boy who studied A Level Climatography back in Barking would be writing this article in Mangawhai 55 years later? I passed! I’m writing this column while Sydney is vanishing underwater. A one-in-a hundred-year storm they say, but we are hearing this message just about every year nowadays. Weather disasters now lead the news both here and worldwide. Let’s take a few minutes to examine how the climate and weather is changing directly due to the climate crisis, and how it might impact Mangawhai over the coming decades. 

Confused as to the difference between climate and weather? Weather is what is happening outside today, climate is what will happen next week. A few recent examples, Sydney averages 36 inches of rain annually, they have just had over 12 inches in two days. Twenty-five million acres of forest was destroyed in the NSW fires a year ago, killing over a billion mammals, birds and reptiles. The smoke turned Mangawhai orange during the afternoon of Sunday January 3. The photo was taken from my home at 3pm on a summer afternoon.

Last summer record temperatures were experienced in Death Valley (55 degC), Australia (49 degC) and Melbourne (43 degC). The 2019 Paris heatwave reached 43 degC, killing over 1500. The USA experienced over 30 tropical storms, running out of names to call them. Houston had 43 inches of rain over two days. The USA also had over 57,000 wildfires losing over 10 million acres of forests. Last week Texas simply came to a halt due to record blizzards and cold temperatures. Worldwide over 12 million hectares of land are being lost to desertification each year now, the lack of water now impacting over 2 billion people. Eight out of the 10 hottest years ever have been experienced in the past decade.

Our future? Generally less snow and ice, stronger storms, changing rain and snow patterns, warmer oceans, more floods, rising sea levels, more droughts and wildfires, higher temperatures and more heatwaves, and increased ocean acidification. That’s all! Things could be far worse but for our climate being impacted by the Southern Ocean. Our Ministry for the Environment states our climate has warmed by 1 degC in the past 100 years. If our emissions remain high temperatures will rise by a further 1 degC by 2040 and 3 degC by 2090. In the last 60 years sea levels have risen by 2.44mm per year. If emissions remain high, sea levels will increase by a further 0.21metres by 2040 and 0.67 metres by 2090. Thats two feet!

We are already being impacted by reduced rainfall. Our electricity generation is reduced by low water levels impacting hydro generation, and Auckland has been rationing water due to low levels in their Waitakere reservoirs. We have had our own one-in-a hundred-year floods, Southern Alps without snow, and Port Hills on fire.

As for Mangawhai, these changes imply that we will experience longer and hotter summers, greater risk of droughts, far less rainfall, but likely come in more severe storms and more floods, and potentially wildfires. As for rising sea levels, not sure. No need to evacuate Lincoln Street just yet. As mentioned we are experiencing a rise of around one centimetre every four years. If we, and all countries, fail to achieve our goal of being “carbon neutral” by 2050 all bets are off regarding rising sea levels.

These predicted changes will certainly impact the availability of water for our residents, farms and our hospitality industry. Our ability to cope with floods and potential wildfires has to be examined.

Fortunately Mangawhai has a high prevalence of residential water tanks, and with more sunny days and EV cars on the horizon it’s a great time to invest in solar power to power your home and car.

Finally, Mangawhai, and New Zealand generally, needs to invest in enhancing our Civil Defence capabilities. We need national policies, programs and funding to protect our communities from the potential threats that climate change has in store for us. Fortunately we have not experienced a Sydney, Paris or Houston disaster, but we need to be resourced to minimise any climate-related damage to our community.

Steve Green, Mangawhai’s ‘computer chap’, has been retired here for 12 years having previously lived and worked in London, New York and Auckland. He welcomes your feedback at theclimatechap@gmail.com if you have any climate questions, recommendations or concerns to raise.