The Climate Chap: Carbon emissions: It’s a gas!

3 Oct, 2022

By now you’re probably aware that by 2050 Aotearoa will have massively reduced its need for – and dependance on – fossil fuels. In doing so our energy sector will be based on “renewable” power generated from hydro, steam, solar and wind. Maybe even tidal and nuclear. Time will tell. No more petrol, natural gas or coal. Transport and industry will also be free of fossil fuels. Well, not really.

Yes, we aim to reduce the harmful emissions resulting from fossil fuels to a level whereby we are “net carbon neutral”. In round numbers at present we generate around 40 million metric tons of carbon emissions annually and nature gobbles up around 25 million of those. Therefore we must eliminate around 15 million metric tons each year to be “net carbon neutral”. A 40 percent reduction. Should be easy.

We tend to take oil for granted when affordable, and complain when unaffordable, but invariably take it on the chin. Our exposure to this amazing industry is usually limited to visiting our excellent local petrol station to fill up the car, boat or canister to take home for the mower. We seldom give any thought to where it comes from and how it is processed.

First drilled in 1859, the oil industry has totally reshaped our civilisation. Times were that a nation’s wealth and power was dictated by military power; now it's oil.

Globally we use around 88 billion barrels every day, 30 percent of the world’s energy being oil based. Where are the current reserves? Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Kuwait, UAE, USA and Libya. Venezuela and Saudi enjoy over 35 percent of these reserves. How abundant are the reserves? Enough for approaching 50 years. Plenty. You may have noticed that most of these countries have experienced political strife, wars or US embargoes of late.

Each of the 1300 oil rigs will usually last up to 50 years. As for refineries there are around 130 major plants based in the USA, China, Russia, India, South Korea, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Germany and Canada. The USA and China refine around 30 million barrels each day, with these “top 10” nations responsible for around 60 percent of all oil refined.

Oil exploration is astronomically expensive, but fracking has made it easy to extract far more oil from existing wells, and has turned the USA from a net importer to the largest exporter in one generation. Global profits? US$3 billion every day.

Come 2050 the oil industry will still be massive and a vast range of manufactured products will still rely on oil. Most oil is used for transport and heating. However, a vast array of products depends on oil – nail polish, toothpaste, petroleum jelly, antiseptics, soap, deodorant, panty hose, insect repellent, fertilisers, electric blankets, aspirin, paint brushes, sunglasses, artificial limbs, soft contact lenses, shaving cream, to name just a few!

Will the petrol station still exist come 2050? Yes, accepting that trade will be EV based, however petrol sales will still take place for older vehicles, boats and home use. In the UK over half of the petrol sold is at supermarket gas stations. This will accelerate with the transition to

EV cars as there are tons of parking spaces at supermarkets, and easy to recharge your EV whilst doing the weekly shop. Expect Aotearoa to follow this trend.

Will petrol be cheap? Get serious! The major nations who dominate the oil reserves dictate availability. Production at refineries is invariably already at full tilt, and therefore more refineries are needed to provide increased capacity and potentially reduce prices. However refineries are incredibly expensive to construct and can easily take over 20 years to become operational. So the oil industry will continue to dictate the supply and demand equation and will ensure that their valuable reserves remain in the ground were prices to dramatically decline.

So where does this leave us? Certainly we will vastly reduce the need for oil, natural gas and coal, these being the fossil fuels that are responsible for half of our annual harmful emissions. This will be aligned to using renewable energy to produce electricity, power our transport, and support industry. All that’s left is to dramatically reduce the other annual 40 million metric tons of methane!

Times were that a nation’s wealth and power was dictated by military power; now it's oil.

Will the petrol station still exist come 2050? Yes, accepting that trade will be EV based, however petrol sales will still take place for older vehicles, boats and home use. PHOTO/SUPPLIED